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房地产报告:上半年供求两旺 去库存基调未变

2016年上半年广东房地产市场   2016-07-28 19:14

[摘要] 上半年,广东房地产市场总体表现活跃,商品房销售量再创历史同期新高。受益于销售畅旺,企业销售回笼资金畅顺,行业资金状况总体宽裕;房地产的完成投资、土地购置面积、新开工面积等投资建设指标同比增速持续回升,企业对后市信心正在增强。

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">概述:上半年,广东房地产市场总体表现活跃,商品房销售量再创历史同期新高。受益于销售畅旺,企业销售回笼资金畅顺,行业资金状况总体宽裕;房地产的完成投资、土地购置面积、新开工面积等投资建设指标同比增速持续回升,企业对后市信心正在增强。但房屋交易市场分化延续,珠三角地区量价齐升,去库存效果更为显著;粤东西北量升价稳,库存持续高企;非住宅商品房库存持续上升,后市房地产去库存压力依旧突出。

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">一、市场运行情况

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">1.销售总体畅旺,市场分化延续

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">今年上半年,广东商品房市场销售畅旺,销售面积和销售金额分别达6722.22万平米和7241.80亿元,同比分别增长39.3%和56.7%;商品房销售均价10773元/平米,同比上涨12.5%。其中,商品住宅销售面积6056.09万平米,销售金额6410.05亿,同比分别增长38.4%和58.4%;销售均价10584元/平方米,同比上涨14.4%,市场呈现量价齐升。

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">图1: 2016年上半年广东商品房销售走势

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">上半年供求两旺 去库存基调未变

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">从单月数据看,今年上半年商品房单月销售面积明显高于过往绝大多数月份的销售水平,累计销售量创下历史同期新高,比2015年同期的历史次高水平多销售1894.80万平米。

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">图2: 2014年以来广东商品房销售面积走势

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">上半年供求两旺 去库存基调未变

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">图3: 2010-2016年各年上半年广东商品房销售面积、销售额比较

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">上半年供求两旺 去库存基调未变

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">分区域看,上半年珠三角地区商品房销售面积和销售金额分别为5089.96万平方米和6414.33亿,同比增长40.6%和59.0%;占全省总量的75.7%和88.6%,同比提高0.7个和1.3个百分点;销售均价12602元/平方米,同比上涨13.1%,呈现量价齐升态势。粤东西北合计销售面积1632.27万平方米,销售金额827.47亿,同比分别增长35.1%和40.4%,合计分别占全省总量的24.3%和11.4%;均价5069元/平方米,同比上涨3.9%,表现为量升价稳。数据显示,珠三角地区商品房的销售量和均价同比增幅均高于其他地区,区域分化仍在延续。

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">上半年供求两旺 去库存基调未变

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">2.去库存初见效,总基调仍未变

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">上半年广东商品房和商品住宅分别新增批准预售面积3721.36万和3105.62万平米,同比增长1.9%和下降1.7%,分别比同期销售面积少3000.86万平米和2950.46万平米。截至6月期末,全省商品房待售面积5664.24万平米,比2月期末减少331.34万平米,但比2015年末略增26.3万平米。数据显示,今年3月份以来,广东商品房新增供应面积持续小于销售面积,供销比不断走低,但市场总体存量充足,表现为供求两旺的运行态势。

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">图4: 2016年上半年广东商品房供求比走势

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">上半年供求两旺 去库存基调未变

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">其中,6月末商品住宅待售面积3335.42万平米,同比减少505.95万平米,降幅为13.2%,库存量低于2014年末水平,但仍高于2014年中及之前的水平;非住宅商品房待售面积2328.83万平方米,同比增长10.5%,库存量持续增长。数据反映,商品住宅市场去库存成效逐渐显现,但库存量仍处高位;非住宅商品房库存量则屡创新高,表明当前及今后一段时期内,房地产去库存的总体基调仍未改变。

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">图5: 2015年末以来广东商品房待售面积走势

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">上半年供求两旺 去库存基调未变

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">图6: 2013年以来广东商品住宅、非住宅待售面积增长走势

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">上半年供求两旺 去库存基调未变

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">分地区看,2015年下半年以来,珠三角地区的住宅待售面积整体快速回落,至今年6月末约为1908万平方米,为2013年以来的低水平,去库存成效较为显著;相比之下,粤东西北近一年的待售面积总体变化不大,仍处在较高水平,去库存形势依然严峻。非住宅市场方面,广东各地区的待售面积均呈持续增长态势。综合来看,目前全省房地产去库存形势依旧严峻,其中非住宅的去化压力又比住宅的更大,后市仍需加大去库存的力度。

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">图7: 2013年以来广东各地区商品住宅待售面积走势

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">上半年供求两旺 去库存基调未变

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">图8: 2013年以来广东各地区非住宅商品房待售面积走势

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">上半年供求两旺 去库存基调未变

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">3.投资稳步提速,企业补地积极

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">上半年,广东房地产企业到位资金8185.49亿元,同比增长34.4%,增速比一季度提高3.0个百分点。从资金来源看,国内贷款1358.43亿,同比下降1.2%;利用外资13.50亿元,同比增长16.9%;自筹资金2119.49亿,同比增长18.6%;其他资金(定金、预付款及按揭贷款等销售回笼资金)4694.07亿元,同比增长60.9%。数据显示,今年上半年房地产企业各类资金来源中,销售回笼资金同比增速快,其占到位资金比重达57.3%,同比提高9.4个百分点,为历年同期高水平;国内贷款所占比重降至历年同期低,自筹资金所占比重也几乎处于同期低位,意味着今年以来企业销售回笼畅顺,资金充裕度较佳。就企业各类资金来源的财务成本而言,当前的资金结构处于历年同期为有利状态。

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">图9: 2010-2016年各年上半年广东房地产企业到位资金结构

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">上半年供求两旺 去库存基调未变

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">从房地产投资情况看,上半年完成投资4512.99亿,同比增长20.8%,增速比一季度提高8.0个百分点,保持稳步提升态势。

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">图10: 2015年以来广东房地产完成投资走势

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">上半年供求两旺 去库存基调未变

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">开发建设方面,截至上半年末,广东商品房施工面积56165.75万平方米,同比增长11.5%。其中,上半年新开工面积6834.06万平米,同比增长17.7%,增速比一季度提高6.8个百分点;竣工面积2538.53万平方米,同比增长32.1%,增速比一季度提高5.9个百分点。从土地购置情况看,上半年全省房地产企业购置土地面积644.97万平米,同比增长18.6%;土地成交价款283.97亿,同比下降11.2%;土地成交均价4403元/平米,同比下降25.1%。与去年同期相比,今年上半年企业积极补充土地储备,但购置土地面积仍处于近7年同期的次低水平。

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">图11: 2010-2016年各年上半年广东房地产土地购置情况

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px" align="center">上半年供求两旺 去库存基调未变

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">二、市场展望

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">从宏观经济形势看,虽然上半年经济运行总体平稳,但经济运行的固有矛盾没有根本缓解,国内外环境依旧复杂严峻,下半年经济下行压力依然较大。就广东而言,上半年全省GDP同比增长7.4%,比总体水平高0.7个百分点;其中二季度增长7.4%,比一季度略高0.1个百分点。总的来说,当前广东经济总体保持稳定,经济增长新动能不断增强,经济运行要好于预期,但也面临市场需求仍然疲弱、工业投资增速回落、实体经济生产经营困难仍然较大、区域发展不协调等压力。

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">房地产业作为国民经济的基础性、先导性行业,关联效应突出,促进房地产市场持续健康发展,对于稳定经济增长有着至关重要的作用。从市场运行情况看,尽管今年上半年商品房销售量再创历史新高,但大部分城市的商品住宅库存依然高企,非住宅商品房库存则呈普遍性上升态势,去库存依然任重道远。且随着政策效应逐渐递减,后市的去库存形势将更为严峻。为了保持房地产市场的持续稳定健康发展,预计促进房地产去库存的调控总基调仍将延续,但对于个别库存相对不足、房价上涨压力较大的城市,将因城施策加强调控力度。

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">综上分析,预计下半年房地产总体政策环境仍将宽松有利,市场有望保持活跃运行。但为防范潜在的金融风险,预计各地将进一步严格执行差异化住房信贷政策。为此,建议房企提高政策和市场风险意识,坚持理性定价、稳健投资,同时加快产品升级、创新,避免在高库存的情况下制造新的库存。

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">三、机构观点

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">【合富房地产经济研究院】政策支持、货币信贷环境趋松带来上半年房地产市场的量价齐升,预计下半年房地产的政策大环境难有实质性转向,楼市保持活跃、价格上行仍是大概率事件。但个别城市库存量大幅下降,去化周期不足半年,房价和地价轮番上涨,可能引发地方政府短期限制措施,市场或有所降温。总体来说,下半年市场过热的城市可能临近新的调控窗口期。

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">【戴德梁行房地产顾问(广州)有限公司】针对商业地产库存高企的现状,政府已从商业用地供给源头控制增量,同时通过政策引导开发企业探索改变土地或物业用途寻找解决方案。多数实体商业也积极作出了创新转型的尝试,互动化、场景化、智能化已成实体商业的趋势,意味着商业运营需要持续不断地尝试和投入——缺乏稳定的资金来源将成为商业运营制肘。因此,通过REITs、众筹、证券化等方式实现轻资产运营也将成为市场主流。

RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; WIDOWS: 1; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; MARGIN: 12px 0px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 14px/26px Arial, 宋体, SimSun, HELVETICA, 'Hiragino Sans GB'; WHITE-SPACE: normal; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); BORDER-: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">【广东中原地产代理有限公司】在稳定的政策环境和宽松的信贷环境下,上半年广州新建商品住宅销售面积创近年新高,预计下半年市场将维持稳定,其中东部、南沙仍是热点区域。土地市场方面,上半年广州住宅用地市场呈现“量少、远郊、高溢价”局面,预计下半年主城区部分优质旧改宅地的入市将引发实力房企激烈争夺。

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